2025年度致投资者信

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of the global stock market in 2025, highlighting the significant uncertainties and risks that characterized the market environment, despite the seemingly positive outcomes. It emphasizes that market pricing often reflects overly optimistic assumptions, which can lead to vulnerabilities when reality diverges from expectations [2][3][4]. Market Environment and Risks - In 2024, economist Nouriel Roubini warned that a Trump victory could significantly increase the risk of the U.S. economy facing a situation worse than recession. He also indicated that a new wave of inflation could negatively impact the stock market and push the 10-year Treasury yield to 8% [3][4]. - The announcement of the "liberation day" policy by Trump in April 2025 led to a noticeable market pullback, with discussions of systemic risks becoming prevalent in media [3]. - Concerns regarding an artificial intelligence valuation bubble were echoed throughout the year, with prominent investors like Ray Dalio comparing the current market state to the late 1990s [3][4]. Performance of Active Funds - Despite a favorable market environment, 54% of U.S. large-cap active funds underperformed the S&P 500 in the first half of 2025, with previous years showing even higher percentages of underperformance at 65% in 2024 and 60% in 2023. Over a ten-year period ending in 2024, 91.54% of these funds underperformed on a risk-adjusted basis, increasing to 98.13% over fifteen years [5][6]. Structural Weakness in Investment Strategies - The article argues that the market does not reward correct judgments but punishes structural weaknesses in investment portfolios. This includes sensitivity to return concentration, asset allocation methods, ongoing fee erosion, and timing biases [6]. - In 2025, the Morningstar U.S. Market Index returned 17.4%, with significant contributions from the technology and communication services sectors, indicating that a small number of stocks drive the majority of market returns [6][7]. Implications for Investors - Historical research shows that only about 4% of U.S. stocks contribute to nearly all long-term net wealth creation, suggesting that missing or underweighting a few extreme winners can lead to structural underperformance against indices [7]. - Active management requires multiple assumptions to be met, including selecting the right companies in a highly skewed market, ensuring adequate risk exposure, covering costs, and making correct decisions at critical moments [7]. Alternative Investments and Complexity - The article highlights the challenges of maintaining a passive investment approach amidst the persuasive narratives from financial institutions promoting complex and costly investment products. It questions whether increased complexity and transparency truly benefit investors [12][13]. - A study indicated that many large institutions using a "donor fund model" underperform simple public market portfolios by 2% to 3% annually after fees, raising concerns about the efficacy of introducing similar products to retail investors [12][13]. Conclusion on Market Dynamics - The article concludes that liquidity issues, structural complexity, and valuation opacity do not eliminate risks but merely delay their exposure, with costs continuously accumulating for investors, particularly retail investors who may lack the ability to assess these risks [14].