从抢油到夺岛：解析特朗普的“唐罗主义”

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the upcoming midterm elections on U.S. foreign policy and domestic issues, emphasizing that geopolitical concerns will become a significant topic driven by electoral dynamics, despite potential short-term volatility [1][14]. Group 1: Midterm Elections and Domestic Issues - The probability of the Republican Party losing the House in the 2026 midterm elections is nearly 80%, according to Polymarket [1]. - Economic issues, particularly the cost of living, are critical for the midterm elections, with challenges in reducing living costs due to long-term housing shortages and high mortgage rates [1]. - Trump's previous policies, such as tariffs and healthcare reforms, contradict efforts to lower living costs, complicating his electoral strategy [1]. Group 2: Trump's Political Strategy - Trump is portrayed as a self-interested politician who prioritizes his approval ratings and seeks to avoid the pitfalls of his first term, where he faced impeachment after midterm losses [4]. - His approach includes leveraging foreign policy to regain electoral support, using tactics that resonate with public concerns, such as immigration and national security [4][5]. - The "Trump Doctrine" combines U.S. national interests with Trump's personal political gains, often leading to high-profile but short-term actions that may not align with long-term strategic benefits [5][6]. Group 3: Geopolitical Actions and Consequences - Trump's foreign policy actions, such as interventions in Venezuela and Greenland, are designed to boost his political standing but may not yield sustainable benefits for U.S. interests [9][11]. - The U.S. has seen a rise in Trump's approval ratings due to his actions in Venezuela, with a notable increase to 42% in early January, marking a seven-month high [9]. - However, the lack of a long-term strategy in these interventions poses risks, including potential instability in Venezuela and challenges in energy cooperation [9][12]. Group 4: Future Implications - The article predicts that geopolitical issues will be a focal point in the lead-up to the midterm elections, potentially leading to significant asset price volatility [14]. - Short-term successes from Trump's "Trump Doctrine" may strengthen the dollar and impact stock markets, but the long-term consequences could undermine U.S. credit and lead to increased global asset price fluctuations [15].