国泰海通｜石油：乙烷价格持续下行，乙烷裂解制乙烯价差扩大

Core Viewpoint - Since December 2025, the production capacity in the main natural gas producing areas in the U.S. has gradually recovered, leading to an increase in market supply and a continuous decline in ethane prices. As of January 14, 2026, U.S. ethane prices dropped from $217/ton to $148/ton, while the ethylene-ethane price spread widened from $480/ton to $554/ton. Domestic demand is expected to decrease due to the upcoming traditional Spring Festival holiday, with downstream terminals gradually entering a shutdown phase, making it difficult for ethane prices to rise before the holiday [1][2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The U.S. natural gas market is becoming more abundant, which is driving down ethane prices. Ethane, as a byproduct of U.S. oil and gas, is typically influenced by fluctuations in U.S. natural gas prices. In early December 2025, a combination of factors, including a polar cold wave leading to increased heating and electricity demand, production cuts in main gas fields, and record-high LNG exports, caused significant price increases for both natural gas and ethane. However, by mid to late December, production capacity in the main gas producing areas began to recover, leading to increased market supply and a subsequent decline in natural gas prices, which also affected ethane prices. Additionally, the easing of shipping capacity for ethane has further reduced the cost of ethane imports to China [2]. - In terms of domestic ethane demand, there is a short-term slowdown expected, but a gradual recovery is anticipated after the holiday. According to statistics from Zhuochuang, a 1.2 million ton/year ethane-to-ethylene facility in East China is about to start raw material feeding, and another ethane cracking terminal in the region has completed maintenance and resumed operations, which will increase ethane procurement demand. However, due to the upcoming Spring Festival holiday, downstream terminals are entering a shutdown phase, which may limit overall market demand. After the holiday, as downstream industries gradually resume operations, terminal demand is expected to recover steadily, potentially allowing for a temporary increase in ethane prices [2][3]. Supply Stability - Supply is expected to remain stable, making it difficult for ethane prices to rise before the holiday. According to Zhuochuang, it is estimated that 11 ships carrying ethane resources will arrive in January 2026, with an estimated total of 502,800 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 37.10%. In the domestic ethane market, an additional 100,000 tons of annual production capacity is expected to come online in North China in January-February of the following year. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, upstream companies are generally reducing inventory, and the combination of increased market supply and weak downstream stocking intentions is likely to lead to a downward trend in ethane prices [3].