纯苯：高库存下为何大涨？

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in pure benzene prices is driven by three main factors: the anticipated end of maintenance for styrene units, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East affecting crude oil prices, and price adjustments by Sinopec to support benzene prices [6][9][10]. Group 1: Reasons for Price Increase - The first reason for the rise in pure benzene prices is the expected end of maintenance for two styrene units, which, combined with a high BZ-SM price spread, has led to increased buying interest in pure benzene [7]. - The second factor is the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have pushed up crude oil prices, thereby providing a geographical premium to pure benzene [9]. - The third reason is Sinopec's two price hikes within the week to support benzene prices [10]. Group 2: Current Market Conditions - The current fundamentals for pure benzene are not optimistic, with East China port inventories reaching 324,000 tons, surpassing historical highs. This inventory build-up has been ongoing since mid-October 2025, indicating a significant surplus [11]. - China's imports of pure benzene remain high, with October imports at 496,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, and November imports at 459,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.93% [11]. - Downstream demand has been weak, particularly for styrene, which has seen a drop in operating rates from 76.54% to around 66.60% due to maintenance, while the second-largest downstream product, caprolactam, has also seen a decline in operating rates from 91% to 72% due to low profits [12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Supply of pure benzene is expected to remain stable before the holiday, with maintenance primarily concentrated in late Q1 and Q2, leading to a gradual decrease in supply post-holiday [16]. - Demand may see a short-term rebound as styrene units are expected to resume operations, and the profitability of styrene suggests that planned maintenance may end on schedule or be completed early [16]. - The overall outlook indicates that while pure benzene inventories are currently tight, the potential return of downstream capacity could improve the weak market conditions, with a focus on changes in import volumes [16].