2026年，主动跑赢量化？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that quantitative funds, despite their popularity and perceived effectiveness, did not significantly outperform actively managed funds in 2025, challenging the notion of their invincibility [10][12]. - In 2025, the average return of public quantitative stock selection funds was 30.3%, which was 5.7% higher than the CSI All Share Index, but lower than the 33.2% return of the 885001 index, indicating a slight underperformance compared to actively managed funds [5][6]. - The article highlights that quantitative strategies have been perceived as superior due to their performance in the bear market from 2021 to 2024, but the performance in 2025 has dispelled the illusion of continuous technical progress [10][11]. Group 2 - The article discusses the characteristics of quantitative strategies, noting that while they tend to have lower error rates, they can accumulate significant mistakes over time due to their reliance on multiple factors and market conditions [14][16]. - It emphasizes that the failure of certain factors in a market downturn can lead to collective underperformance of quantitative strategies, as seen in the market shifts in August 2025 [18][20]. - The article warns that when the protective layers of quantitative strategies fail, they can lead to significant market risks, similar to historical market crashes [20][28]. Group 3 - The article suggests that both quantitative and active funds have potential advantages depending on market conditions, with quantitative funds excelling in certain environments while active funds may outperform in others, particularly during macroeconomic recoveries [30][32]. - It identifies three scenarios where active funds could outperform quantitative strategies: macroeconomic improvements, significant policy shifts, and changes in trading regulations that affect market structure [33][34][35]. - The article concludes that investors should be aware of the risks associated with quantitative strategies, especially during periods of extreme market conditions where multiple factors may fail simultaneously [36][37].