新财富·2026-01-19 08:05Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the diverging stock price trajectories of two leading companies in the GLP-1 obesity drug market, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, highlighting the structural anxieties each company faces as the market transitions from a "blue ocean" to a "red ocean" of competition [4][9]. Group 1: Market Dynamics and Company Performance - Eli Lilly's Mounjaro (tirzepatide) is experiencing strong sales and market share growth, leading to a rising market valuation and a clear positioning as a "next-generation leader" [6]. - In contrast, Novo Nordisk has faced multiple challenges, including downward revisions of performance guidance and management changes, resulting in significant stock price volatility and a cooling market sentiment [7][11]. - The market's focus has shifted from merely "who sells better" to "who can sustain leadership," indicating a deeper evaluation of each company's future potential in the competitive landscape [8][10]. Group 2: Structural Anxieties of Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly - Novo Nordisk's historical dominance in the obesity drug market is being challenged as it faces a systematic erosion of growth certainty, marked by three downward revisions of its annual growth forecast from 16%-24% to 8%-14% [11][12]. - The slowdown in growth for Novo Nordisk's core product, semaglutide, is attributed to increased competition and market pressures, including the rise of illegal compounded drugs and the aggressive market entry of Eli Lilly's tirzepatide [12][13]. - The market's disappointment with Novo Nordisk's next-generation product, CagriSema, stems from its inability to demonstrate a significant technological advantage over semaglutide, raising concerns about the company's future growth prospects [15][16]. Group 3: Shifts in Innovation Focus - The investment logic in the obesity drug market has evolved from a singular focus on weight loss percentages to a broader consideration of long-term management and patient adherence [25][27]. - As the limits of weight loss efficacy become clearer, the competition is shifting towards innovations that prioritize long-term management and patient compliance rather than just maximizing short-term weight loss [28][30]. - Both Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are increasingly investing in oral GLP-1 formulations, recognizing the importance of delivery methods in enhancing patient adherence and expanding the market [30][32]. Group 4: Strategic Approaches to Oral GLP-1 - Novo Nordisk's oral GLP-1 product, Wegovy, is seen as a defensive strategy to extend the lifecycle of its successful semaglutide product, while Eli Lilly's Orforglipron is positioned as an offensive tool aimed at redefining treatment paradigms [42][45]. - The contrasting strategies highlight Novo Nordisk's focus on maintaining its market position versus Eli Lilly's ambition to establish a new standard in obesity treatment [49][51]. - The competition in oral GLP-1 formulations is not merely about who can launch first but about who can effectively redefine the future of obesity management [48][54].