美联储独立性的分水岭！明天，美国最高法院审“特朗普诉库克案”

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing court case regarding the Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook is critical for the independence of the Federal Reserve, with potential implications for monetary policy driven by political motives rather than data-driven logic [1][4]. Group 1: Court Case and Its Implications - The Supreme Court hearing this week will determine whether Lisa Cook can continue her role on the Federal Reserve Board, following allegations of fraud made by the Trump administration [3]. - UBS highlights that the case directly challenges the "for cause" removal protection outlined in the Federal Reserve Act, which could lead to significant changes in the governance of the Federal Reserve [4]. - If the court rules against Cook, it may open the door for the President to remove Federal Reserve officials based on political motivations, undermining the institution's independence [5]. Group 2: Political Tensions and Market Reactions - The relationship between the U.S. administration and the Federal Reserve has escalated into a public confrontation, with the Justice Department issuing subpoenas related to the management of the Federal Reserve's office renovation [7]. - UBS analysts suggest that if the government pursues criminal charges against Fed Chair Jerome Powell, it could lead to a scenario where Powell remains in a board role beyond his chairmanship, potentially acting as a buffer against aggressive rate cuts [7]. - The market is bracing for a turbulent 2026, with expectations of declines in the dollar, U.S. stocks, and bonds if the court ruling is unfavorable for Cook or if Powell faces increased pressure [6][7].