连平：2026年中国经济有望保持5%左右的增速

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's economy demonstrated strong resilience despite external challenges, achieving a GDP of 140 trillion yuan with a growth rate of 5.0%, maintaining the target set at the beginning of the year [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Performance - The GDP growth rate for 2025 was 5.0%, consistent with the previous year, with quarterly growth rates of 5.4%, 5.2%, 4.8%, and 4.5% respectively, indicating a "high at the beginning and stable later" trend [3][6]. - Industrial production saw a 5.9% increase in added value, with high-tech and equipment manufacturing leading the growth, reflecting improved corporate confidence [6][9]. - The retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7%, supported by policy initiatives and structural upgrades, with notable growth in service consumption and new consumption models [9][10]. Group 2: Export Dynamics - Exports exceeded expectations, with a 5.5% year-on-year increase, and December exports grew by 6.6%, indicating limited impact from U.S. tariffs [10][11]. - The export scale remained high, with monthly exports consistently above $300 billion, and a record high of $357.78 billion in December [10][11]. - The share of exports to the U.S. decreased from approximately 20.7% during Trump's first term to 9.55%, while exports to non-U.S. markets expanded significantly [10][11]. Group 3: Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment declined by 3.8% in 2025, primarily due to a 17.2% drop in real estate development investment and a 2.2% decrease in infrastructure investment [13][15]. - The eastern region experienced the most significant investment decline at 8.4%, while private investment saw a notable decrease of 6.4% [13][15]. - The overall contribution of final consumption, capital formation, and net exports to economic growth was 52.0%, 15.3%, and 32.7% respectively [13][15]. Group 4: Price Stability and Financial Market - The overall price level remained stable, with CPI unchanged year-on-year and PPI's decline narrowing, indicating effective macroeconomic policies [15][16]. - In December, CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, driven by seasonal increases in food prices and industrial consumer goods [16][17]. - The capital market became a vital channel for converting deposits into investments in the real economy, with direct financing increasing by 16.7 trillion yuan, accounting for 46.9% of social financing [20][21]. Group 5: Policy Recommendations for 2026 - The focus for 2026 includes stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations while enhancing macroeconomic policy effectiveness [24][27]. - Recommendations include increasing support for the real estate market, enhancing service consumption financing, and addressing local fiscal challenges [27][29][30]. - Emphasis on optimizing the evaluation system for major economic provinces to encourage their role in national strategies and improve resource allocation [30].