热门商品集体回调后，关注聚光灯之外的机会

Geopolitical Tensions - The geopolitical pressure between the US and Iran has significantly escalated, with the US State Department issuing a highest-level security warning for citizens to evacuate Iran and threatening a 25% tariff on countries conducting business with Iran. The US military has increased troop presence in the Middle East and is considering various military strike options, including airstrikes on military facilities [5] - Iran has responded strongly, with its Supreme Leader calling for national unity and the military entering a state of maximum readiness, warning of retaliation against US military bases and shipping targets if attacked. Both sides are in a "testing state" on the brink of war, where any miscalculation could trigger conflict [5] - The tensions pose significant risks to the global commodity market, particularly concerning the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for approximately 20% of global oil transport. A disruption could lead to a sharp spike in oil prices [5] - Iran is a key exporter of methanol, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and polyethylene, with Iran's methanol accounting for nearly half of China's imports. Conflict could directly threaten the supply chain of these chemical products [5] Greenland Dispute - Disagreements between the US and Europe regarding Greenland have increased, with the US imposing tariffs on eight European countries to coerce acceptance of its demands for the "complete acquisition of Greenland." European nations have expressed opposition and have sent symbolic military support to Greenland [6] - This geopolitical dispute directly impacts the pricing of key metals, as Greenland holds about 32% of the world's rare earth reserves and significant amounts of copper, cobalt, and nickel. The tensions have led to increased price volatility in rare earths and silver, and if the US gains control over the island, it could reshape the global rare earth supply chain [6] Structural Opportunities in Oil and Chemicals - The focus is on structural opportunities under the "reduce oil, increase chemicals" strategy. Naphtha, as the "mother of chemicals," is produced through steam cracking and is a key feedstock for olefins and aromatics. The supply of naphtha is expected to face long-term bottlenecks due to declining gasoline demand and domestic refining capacity nearing policy ceilings [8] - The closure of high-cost, outdated refineries in Europe and Japan is creating market space for China's expanding chemical capacity, which could lead to significant fluctuations in olefin supply and pricing [8] Pricing Dynamics in Pulp and Soybeans - The global market for pulp is experiencing a significant shift, with new capacity for hardwood pulp increasing while softwood pulp capacity remains limited. The strong demand from China is expected to support prices, especially for needle pulp, as supply bottlenecks become clearer [9] - Domestic soybean prices remain high due to strong purchasing activity from state reserves and a reluctance among grain holders to sell. However, high prices are suppressing purchasing enthusiasm among downstream enterprises, leading to a potential "price without market" situation [18]