【招银研究|宏观点评】圆满收官——中国经济数据点评（2025年全年及12月）

Overview - The core viewpoint of the article is that China's economy in 2025 is characterized by a deepening supply-demand imbalance, with strong supply and weak demand, as well as a resilient external demand compared to internal demand. The GDP is projected to exceed 140 trillion yuan, with nominal growth of 4% and real growth of 5% [1][4]. Economic Structure - The economic operation in 2025 shows three main features: a deepening supply-demand imbalance, stronger external demand than internal demand, and initial success in price governance. The industrial added value increased by 5.9%, which is higher than GDP, investment, and consumption growth rates [4][5]. - The contribution rates to GDP growth from final consumption expenditure, capital formation, and net exports are 52%, 15.3%, and 32.7%, respectively [1]. Consumption - The total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% in 2025, with a "front high and back low" rhythm. The growth rates for goods and catering were 3.8% and 3.2%, respectively, indicating stronger performance in goods [12][15]. - In December, the retail sales growth rate dropped to 0.9%, reflecting a further weakening of growth momentum. Durable goods consumption faced significant pressure, with home appliances down by 14.3% [15][18]. Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment decreased by 3.8% in 2025, primarily due to declines in infrastructure (-1.5%) and real estate investment (-17.2%). Private investment continued to shrink for the third consecutive year, with a significant drop of 6.4% [18][20]. - Real estate sales showed a smaller decline compared to investment, with sales area and amount down by 8.7% and 12.6%, respectively, indicating a slight recovery in sales [20][21]. Foreign Trade - In 2025, exports maintained resilience with a cumulative growth of 5.5%, while imports showed no growth. Exports to the US fell by 19.9%, while exports to non-US regions grew by 9.9%, becoming the main support for overall export growth [29][30]. - In December, exports increased by 6.6%, driven by strong performance in automobiles and integrated circuits, which grew by 71.7% and 47.7%, respectively [29][30]. Supply Side - Industrial production growth accelerated in 2025, with the industrial added value increasing by 5.9%. The contribution rate of industry to economic growth reached 35%, up by 1.8% from 2024 [31][35]. - In December, industrial production showed a year-on-year growth of 5.2%, with a notable increase in high-tech industries [31][35]. Inflation - Inflation showed moderate recovery in 2025, with the CPI remaining flat year-on-year and core CPI rising to 1.2%. The PPI contracted by 2.6%, influenced by supply-demand balance and rising international metal prices [36][37]. - In December, CPI rose by 0.8%, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase, while PPI contracted by 1.9% [36][37]. Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, it is expected to be a pivotal year for the "14th Five-Year Plan," with a GDP growth target of around 5%. Industrial production is anticipated to grow steadily, supported by resilient external demand and a recovery in consumption [40].