国泰海通｜策略：特朗普扰动地缘政治局势，建议超配黄金

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests a tactical overweight in A/H shares, US stocks, and gold, while recommending an underweight in US Treasuries and crude oil due to geopolitical tensions and economic conditions [1][2]. Group 1: A/H Shares and US Stocks - Multiple factors support the performance of Chinese equities, with a recommendation to overweight A/H shares. The upcoming economic work conference and the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2026 are expected to lead to an expansion of the fiscal deficit and more aggressive economic policies [1]. - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower interest rates in December, and the stability and appreciation of the RMB will provide favorable conditions for monetary easing in early 2026. Reforms are expected to boost market risk appetite in China [1]. - Chinese equities offer a higher risk-return profile compared to other major asset classes [1]. Group 2: US Treasuries - The uncertainty surrounding the new Federal Reserve chairperson is increasing market speculation regarding US monetary policy, leading to a recommendation for an underweight in US Treasuries [1]. - The US labor market is cooling, and lower energy prices along with moderate wage growth are likely to reduce endogenous inflation, providing more room for the Fed to adjust monetary policy [1]. - The resilience of the US economy suggests that the Fed's monetary policy guidance may be relatively cautious, with US Treasury yields expected to decline moderately. However, the uncertainty regarding the new chairperson increases the risk-return ratio of Treasuries compared to risk assets [1]. Group 3: Gold - In the context of geopolitical upheaval, gold is recommended for overweight due to its strong resilience and safe-haven attributes. The rising uncertainty in global geopolitical situations and continued central bank purchases of gold support a long-term price floor for gold [2]. - Despite fluctuations driven by speculative trading, gold prices maintain strong resilience amid the Trump administration's hegemonic policies, which further undermine US international credibility [2]. Group 4: Crude Oil - Short-term volatility in crude oil is expected to increase, leading to a recommendation for an underweight in crude oil. Investor expectations regarding supply and demand for oil are relatively consistent, and OPEC+ has made moderate adjustments to production [2]. - Geopolitical events in South America may increase the US's influence on global oil prices, while the Trump administration's policies are inclined towards lower oil prices, suggesting continued pressure on crude oil prices [2].