商业航天，开始告别宏大叙事

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the volatility in the commercial aerospace sector, illustrated by the dramatic stock price fluctuations of companies like Goldwind Technology, which experienced a significant drop in market value due to regulatory warnings and market sentiment shifts [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On January 16, Goldwind Technology's stock plummeted from 33.38 yuan to a limit down of 30.04 yuan, resulting in a market value loss of approximately 14 billion yuan within three trading days [1]. - The rapid rise and fall of Goldwind's stock was linked to its association with the commercial aerospace sector, particularly following a surge in market interest driven by IPO expectations [4][5]. - Regulatory interventions by the Shanghai Stock Exchange targeted companies like Hangxiao Steel Structure and Electronics Science Digital for inaccurate information related to commercial aerospace, contributing to a market sell-off [3][5]. Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The regulatory actions were aimed at curbing irrational speculation in the commercial aerospace sector while supporting the industry's long-term development [5][6]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has expedited the IPO process for companies in the commercial aerospace sector, indicating strong governmental support for this strategic emerging industry [6]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The commercial aerospace sector is expected to transition from a "policy incubation period" to an "industrial explosion period" around 2026, with significant advancements anticipated in reusable rocket technology [6][7]. - Recent successful tests of the Long March 12B rocket, designed for commercial launch needs, underscore the industry's focus on reducing launch costs and increasing launch frequency [7]. - The investment logic in the commercial aerospace sector is shifting from speculative narratives to a focus on companies with real orders and technological advantages within the supply chain [8]. Group 4: Investment Implications - Following the end of speculative trading, market attention is likely to concentrate on companies that are directly involved in core model development and supply critical components [8]. - Goldwind Technology, despite its recent stock volatility, serves as a unique observation point for the commercial aerospace sector, reflecting the market's gradual recovery from panic [8].