国泰海通｜宏观：总量稳健，结构优化——2025年四季度经济数据点评

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's economy is expected to achieve its annual GDP growth target of 5.0%, with a quarterly growth rate of 4.5% in Q4, reflecting a slight decline due to base effects. The economy exhibits dual differentiation, characterized by a strong industrial production but structural mismatches in capacity and demand, as well as a resilient external demand contrasted with sluggish internal demand [2][4][5]. Economic Structure and Performance - The economic structure continues to show differentiation, with emerging forces performing well during the transition period. Industrial production in December reversed previous slowdowns, driven by high-end manufacturing and green transformation, while the service sector's production index grew by 5.0% year-on-year [2][7][9]. - The investment sector remains under pressure due to funding constraints, insufficient project reserves, and weak demand, with fixed asset investment declining by 3.8% year-on-year [6][23][25]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - There is a persistent contradiction between supply and demand, with industrial production showing strong supply but weak demand. The sales rate of industrial products in December was 98.2%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, indicating that production expansion is outpacing demand recovery [5][8]. - External demand remains robust due to optimized export structures, while internal demand is constrained by slow recovery in consumption and investment. In 2025, cumulative year-on-year growth rates for investment, consumption, and exports were -3.8%, 3.7%, and 5.5%, respectively [6][12]. Policy Focus - The next phase of policy will focus on expanding domestic demand, enhancing consumption quality, and effective investment. This includes promoting the replacement of old consumer goods, supporting new growth points in service consumption, and increasing investment in new infrastructure and equipment updates [7][22]. Consumer Behavior and Trends - In Q4, retail sales of consumer goods showed steady growth for the year but faced year-end pressure, with a 0.9% year-on-year increase in December. Rural consumption outperformed urban consumption, with rural retail sales growing by 4.1% for the year [13][14][18]. - Online consumption remains a stable growth driver, with a year-on-year increase of 8.6% in 2025, significantly higher than the overall retail growth [14][19]. Investment Landscape - Investment continues to face challenges, with fixed asset investment in December showing a year-on-year decline of 15.1%. The real estate sector remains sluggish, with new construction and completion areas decreasing significantly [23][26]. - Manufacturing investment is hindered by weak demand and profit pressures, while infrastructure investment is constrained by funding shortages and insufficient project availability [25][27].