数据点评 | 12月经济：被忽视的“积极变化”（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The economic resilience in Q4 2025 is supported by improvements in service consumption, a moderation of the "crowding out effect" from debt reduction, and a recovery in new economic sectors [1][94]. GDP Analysis - Q4 2025 GDP growth is recorded at 4.5%, matching market expectations, with a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.2%, up from 1.1% in Q3 [1][4]. - The secondary industry growth rate has significantly declined by 0.8 percentage points to 3.4%, reflecting weakened fixed investment and declining commodity consumption [1][94]. - Exports continue to grow robustly, which helps mitigate the downward pressure on the overall economy [1][94]. Consumption Insights - Retail sales in December show a decline, primarily due to a 0.5 percentage point drop in retail sales of goods below a certain threshold, now at 3.1% [2][13]. - Service retail sales have improved, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points to 5.5%, indicating ongoing recovery in non-food service consumption [2][14]. - The automotive, home appliance, and communication equipment sectors show varying degrees of improvement in retail growth rates [2][14]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in December fell by 1.2 percentage points to -13.2%, with manufacturing and service sector investments also declining [6][19]. - The "crowding out effect" from debt reduction policies is easing, leading to a marginal improvement in infrastructure investment [19][28]. - Real estate investment continues to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 17.2%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the sector [6][28]. Production Developments - Industrial value-added growth in December increased by 0.4 percentage points to 5.2%, with significant recovery in sectors with high "new momentum" such as pharmaceuticals and specialized equipment [37][46]. - Traditional sectors like automotive production are experiencing a slowdown, influenced by intensified anti-involution policies [37][46]. Summary of Economic Structure Changes - The transition in policy focus from goods to services is leading to a divergence in economic indicators, with traditional metrics showing weakness while service consumption indicators improve [3][46]. - The decline in investment growth is largely attributed to intensified corporate debt repayment policies, which ultimately benefit corporate cash flow [3][46].