光大证券研究·2026-01-19 23:06Core Viewpoint - The economic data for Q4 2025 indicates a significant "high first, low later" trend, with supply outpacing demand and external demand stronger than internal demand [4][5]. Economic Data Summary - In Q4 2025, the GDP grew by 4.5% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations, while the annual growth rate for 2025 was 5% [4][5]. - The industrial added value for December 2025 increased by 5.2% year-on-year, up from 4.8% in November [4][5]. - Fixed asset investment for the entire year of 2025 saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 3.8%, worsening from a previous decline of 2.6% [4][6]. - Retail sales of consumer goods in December 2025 grew by 0.9% year-on-year, down from 1.3% in November, marking a continuous decline over seven months [4][6]. Investment Market Insights - In the bond market, from August 2025 to the present, government bond yields have shown a clear divergence, with short-term yields stable and declining, while long-term yields, especially the 30-year yield, are on an upward trend [7]. - The current loose liquidity and diverging fundamentals suggest a gradually optimistic outlook for the bond market, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to stabilize around 1.75% in 2026 [7]. - In the convertible bond market, as of January 16, 2026, the China Securities Convertible Bond Index has risen by 5.6%, mirroring the 5.5% increase in the overall index, indicating a strong demand for convertible bonds amid a bullish equity market [7].