Group 1 - The geopolitical tensions in Iran have led to significant fluctuations in oil prices, with Brent and WTI crude oil futures rising by 1.9% and 0.7% respectively as of January 16, 2026 [2] - OPEC+ has increased production by 2.21 million barrels per day in 2025, but plans to slow down production increases in 2026 to balance oil prices [3] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 860,000 barrels per day, driven primarily by the chemical sector [4] Group 2 - The "Big Three" Chinese oil companies have demonstrated resilience during the recent oil price fluctuations, with performance exceeding historical levels due to increased production and effective cost control [5] - The ongoing capital expenditure by the "Big Three" is expected to support their long-term growth and adaptation to changing market conditions [5]
【石油化工】地缘局势动荡驱动油价上行，原油供给过剩预期有望改善——行业周报第436期（20260112—20260118）（赵乃迪/蔡嘉豪/王礼沫）
光大证券研究·2026-01-19 23:06