【光大研究每日速递】20260120

Economic Policy and Market Outlook - Recent economic policies, including structural interest rate cuts, are expected to support economic growth, potentially leading to a "good start" in the first quarter of 2026, although final performance will depend on forthcoming data [5] - The financial market policies have moderated previously overheated sectors, indicating that the market may not sustain its rapid upward trend and could transition into a more volatile phase [5] Fund Market Trends - The Hong Kong stock market saw an overall increase, while domestic equity markets experienced fluctuations; TMT-themed funds performed well, whereas defense and military-themed funds faced net value declines [5] - There was a notable reduction in passive fund holdings across various broad-based ETFs, with over 130 billion yuan flowing out of large-cap ETFs, while TMT and cyclical theme ETFs attracted over 60 billion yuan in net inflows [5] Economic Data Insights - The economic landscape in 2025 is characterized by a "high before low" trend, with supply outpacing demand and external demand exceeding internal demand [6] - In December 2025, industrial production growth rates increased year-on-year and month-on-month, while fixed asset investment saw a widening decline, and retail sales growth continued to decrease [6] Oil and Geopolitical Factors - Heightened geopolitical tensions in Iran have increased the geopolitical risk premium on oil, contributing to rising oil prices; as of January 16, 2026, Brent and WTI crude oil prices were reported at $64.20 and $59.22 per barrel, reflecting increases of 1.9% and 0.7% respectively [7] - The ongoing international instability is likely to provide a favorable foundation for oil price trends in the long term [7] Infrastructure Investment - The State Grid has announced a planned fixed asset investment of 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, marking a 40% increase compared to the previous plan, focusing on power grid and energy storage sectors [8] - Key projects for 2026 will concentrate on ultra-high voltage and pumped storage, indicating potential opportunities in power infrastructure orders and renewable energy consumption [8] Power Consumption and Digitalization - In 2025, the total electricity consumption in society increased by 5.0% year-on-year [9] - The State Grid's investment in new power systems is expected to enhance capacity pricing, with projected capacity prices for 2026 estimated at 6.3 cents per kilowatt-hour, a 4-cent increase from the previous year [9] Pharmaceutical Sector Innovations - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors are experiencing a surge driven by innovation, including overseas expansion, AI applications, and new technologies, alongside policy support and seasonal market dynamics [9] - Key focus areas include innovative drugs, CXO services, AI healthcare, brain-computer interfaces, and small nucleic acid drugs, with ongoing attention required on post-JPM conference collaborations and clinical data outcomes [9]