【公用事业】25年全社会用电量同比提升5%，重视电力数字化板块机会——公用事业行业周报（20260118）（殷中枢/宋黎超）

Market Overview - The SW public utility sector increased by 0.06% this week, ranking 13th among 31 SW primary sectors. Sub-sectors showed mixed performance: thermal power up by 0.35%, hydropower down by 1.76%, photovoltaic power up by 4.14%, wind power up by 0.22%, comprehensive energy services up by 4.49%, and gas down by 1.17% [4] Price Trends - Domestic and imported thermal coal prices exhibited divergent trends. Domestic Qinhuangdao port 5500 kcal thermal coal price rose by 3 CNY/ton week-on-week, surpassing 700 CNY/ton. In contrast, imported thermal coal in Guangzhou decreased by 20 CNY/ton week-on-week [5] - The average electricity prices in Guangdong and Shanxi increased year-on-year. Monthly agency purchasing costs are on the rise due to higher capacity prices and the entry of new energy mechanisms into the settlement cycle. However, agency purchasing electricity costs have generally decreased nationwide, with only five regions experiencing year-on-year increases [5] Key Events 1. The National Energy Administration released data indicating a 5.0% year-on-year increase in total electricity consumption by 2025, with specific increases in various sectors: primary industry up by 9.9%, secondary industry up by 3.7%, tertiary industry up by 8.2%, and urban-rural residential electricity consumption up by 6.3% [6] 2. The State Grid Gansu Electric Power Company announced that by 2025, the capacity demand for the Gansu power grid will be 28.89 million kW, with a reliable capacity of 32.27 million kW, resulting in a capacity supply-demand ratio of 89.53% [6] 3. The State Grid announced a fixed asset investment plan of 4 trillion CNY during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, representing a 40% increase compared to the previous plan, aimed at building a new power system [6] Industry Insights - The State Grid's investment plan emphasizes the importance of digitalization in the new power system. With the decline in thermal coal prices, national thermal power operators are expected to see significant year-on-year increases in profitability per kilowatt-hour [8] - The electricity price remains a critical factor, with market focus on electricity prices and stable supply-demand regions. The green electricity sector is entering the settlement phase under the "136 Document," which may lead to adjustments in new green electricity installations [8] - The overall electricity supply-demand situation is expected to remain loose, continuing the trend from 2025, with pressure on electricity prices. However, the growth in green electricity installations may support the demand for base-load thermal power [8]