中金：结汇处于季节性高点

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the RMB exchange rate is significantly influenced by seasonal demand for foreign exchange settlements, particularly in December and January, due to increased corporate funding needs at year-end [1][2][3] Exchange Rate Analysis - The RMB/USD central parity rate typically appreciates in December and January, with average increases of 0.5% and 0.8% respectively, and appreciation probabilities of 75% and 67% [1][3] - In December 2025, the RMB/USD central parity rate appreciated by 0.7%, marking the largest monthly appreciation for the year [2] - The settlement demand in December 2025 was notably high, with banks conducting foreign exchange settlements amounting to $311 billion, which is 53% higher than the average from February to November 2025 [2] Trade Surplus Insights - In 2025, China's trade surplus reached a historical high of $1,189 billion, although its ratio to GDP is lower than the peaks observed before 2008 [1] - Despite external trade frictions, China's export growth remained resilient, with a year-on-year increase of 5.5% in dollar terms [1] Financial Cycle Perspective - The evaluation of exchange rates should focus more on financial cycles rather than solely on trade perspectives, as capital flows and price expectations play a crucial role in exchange rate fluctuations in the modern financial system [3]