NAND雪上加霜，巨头削减产能

Core Viewpoint - Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are expected to reduce NAND flash production this year, which may lead to a supply shortage and price increases across various sectors, including AI, servers, personal computers, and mobile devices [1][2]. Group 1: NAND Flash Market Dynamics - Samsung Electronics has slightly lowered its NAND flash wafer production forecast from 4.9 million last year to 4.68 million this year, following a previous reduction due to anticipated declines in NAND profitability [1]. - SK Hynix's NAND flash production is also expected to decrease from 1.9 million wafers last year to 1.7 million this year [1]. - The demand for NAND flash is surging due to the rise of AI, with major suppliers' adjustments potentially exacerbating supply shortages across all sectors [2]. Group 2: Impact of AI on NAND Flash Demand - Nvidia's next-generation AI accelerator, Vera Rubin, is set to have a solid-state drive (SSD) capacity of 1152TB, significantly increasing demand for NAND flash [2]. - The expected shipment of Vera Rubin is 30,000 units this year and 100,000 units next year, which will create additional demand of 34.6 million TB and 115.2 million TB by 2026 and 2027, respectively [2]. Group 3: Production Strategy and Market Position - Samsung and SK Hynix are prioritizing DRAM investments over NAND flash due to lower profitability, leading to intentional production cuts [3]. - China's Yangtze Memory Technologies has been steadily increasing its NAND flash production, indicating a strengthening market position and a shift in focus towards server and enterprise applications [3]. Group 4: Price Predictions and Market Trends - TrendForce predicts that NAND flash contract prices will rise by 33% to 38% in the first quarter, reflecting a conservative production strategy from major suppliers [3]. - IDC forecasts a 17% growth in NAND flash supply this year, which is below the average growth rate in recent years [3]. Group 5: HBM Production Expansion - Samsung and SK Hynix are increasing their semiconductor production capacity to meet the demand for various chips, including HBM and DDR [4]. - Samsung's HBM capacity is expected to grow by 50% by 2026 to fulfill large orders from Nvidia [4]. Group 6: Investment in New Facilities - Samsung plans to invest 60 trillion KRW (approximately 41.5 billion USD) in a new factory in Pyeongtaek, which is expected to begin production in 2028 [5]. - SK Hynix is investing over 20 trillion KRW in the M15X factory, which will include two clean rooms for chip production [7].