半导体行业观察·2026-01-20 02:02Group 1 - Intel's Ohio One project, initially touted as the largest wafer factory in the U.S., has faced delays and scale reductions but remains active, with recent contractor job postings indicating acceleration in progress [1] - The Ohio One facility is designed to host up to eight wafer fabs, with the first two expected to begin production by 2030-2031, significantly delayed from the original 2025 target [1] - The first wafer fab will be the 1st fab, followed by the 2nd fab expected to start production a year later, coinciding with Intel's development of its next-generation 14A process [1] Group 2 - Intel's latest Panther Lake mobile CPUs are produced in Arizona and Oregon using the new 18A process, marking a significant advancement for domestic chip manufacturing, although there are no large external customers for this process [2] - CEO Pat Gelsinger has shifted from a pessimistic view of the 18A process to a more optimistic stance recently, despite the 14A process now expected to reach mass production in 2027 [2] - The Ohio One site was initially predicted to be the birthplace of the 14A process, but this timeline has shifted, with derivative products already occupying a significant portion of Intel's lineup before the site's official opening [2] Group 3 - The U.S. government allocated $8.9 billion from the CHIPS Act to Intel in exchange for a 10% equity stake, alongside a $5 billion collaboration with NVIDIA, signaling a resurgence in Intel's competitiveness, particularly in the foundry business [3] - Intel is accelerating the construction of the Ohio One facility after years of stagnation, but the timeline for its completion remains uncertain [3] Group 4 - TSMC is facing a "happy dilemma" with its 3nm process capacity fully booked until 2027, prompting significant increases in capital expenditure plans [5] - This capacity constraint is reshaping the market dynamics, leading TSMC's top clients to consider alternatives like Samsung and Intel [5] - TSMC's capital expenditure for 2026 is projected to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, exceeding previous expectations due to the overwhelming demand for advanced nodes [5] Group 5 - The supply-demand imbalance is causing market oversupply, with major clients like Apple, NVIDIA, AMD, Broadcom, Qualcomm, and MediaTek seeking alternative capacities as TSMC's advanced process node market share is expected to drop from 95% to 90% [6] - TSMC's 3nm monthly production capacity is planned to expand to 190,000 wafers by the end of 2026, but this will still fall short of client demand [6] - TSMC is adopting a more aggressive strategy by delaying new 3nm process development and encouraging clients to shift products originally slated for 2027/2028 to the 2nm GAA process [6] Group 6 - Samsung's Taylor wafer fab is seen as a more likely alternative for clients seeking supply options compared to Intel, with Qualcomm and AMD being the most likely to consider Samsung [7] - Discussions have indicated that Apple and Broadcom are evaluating Intel, but significant work remains for Intel's 14A process to be competitive [7]