【申万固收|地方债周报】地方债发行或在1月下旬提速——地方债周度跟踪20260116

Core Viewpoint - The issuance and net financing of local bonds have decreased compared to the previous period, but an increase is expected in the upcoming period. The total issuance/net financing for the period from January 12 to January 18, 2026, was 748.41 billion yuan/685.66 billion yuan, down from 1,176.64 billion yuan/1,146.68 billion yuan in the previous period. The expected issuance/net financing for the upcoming period (January 19 to January 25, 2026) is 2,315.70 billion yuan/2,031.60 billion yuan [3]. Local Bond Issuance - The weighted average issuance period for local bonds is 19.45 years, shortened from 21.36 years in the previous period [4]. - The issuance rates for 10-year and 30-year local bonds have decreased to 14.70 BP and 19.80 BP, respectively, compared to the previous period [5]. - The overall subscription multiples for the bonds have increased, with the 10-year and 30-year bonds seeing multiples of 27 and 23, respectively, up from 18 and 17 in the previous period [3][5]. Special Bonds and Financing - The progress of newly issued special bonds is faster than in previous years, with the cumulative issuance of general bonds and special bonds as of January 16, 2026, being 0.1% and 2.5% of the annual quota, respectively [3][7]. - The total planned issuance of local bonds for the first quarter of 2026 is 21,179 billion yuan, comparable to the same period in 2025 [3][17]. - The issuance of special refinancing bonds for debt replacement and repayment of existing debts was 389 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 645 billion yuan for debt replacement as of January 16, 2026 [3][14]. Market Dynamics - The yield spread between local bonds and national bonds has narrowed, with the 10-year and 30-year local bond spreads at 21.76 BP and 17.64 BP, respectively [23]. - The weekly turnover rate for local bonds has slightly decreased to 0.64% from 0.65% in the previous period [28]. - Current 10-year and 15-year local bonds are considered to have a certain cost-performance advantage, with the yield spread adjustments indicating potential for favorable investment conditions [3][23].