铜、镍：后市节奏如何把握

Copper Market Analysis - The recent decline in copper prices is attributed to market sentiment influenced by U.S. tariff news and Nvidia's data center copper consumption estimates, but these factors have minimal impact on supply-demand dynamics and U.S. copper siphoning expectations [1][2] - Despite short-term adjustments, the medium-term upward trend in copper prices remains intact, with potential bullish entry points during this correction [2] - U.S. copper imports have significantly decreased, necessitating refined copper demand to fill the gap, while AI capital expenditures and power system upgrades are expected to drive high growth in U.S. copper consumption [2][4] - The global copper market is projected to experience a substantial shortage by 2026, with macroeconomic conditions favoring a super cycle for copper prices, potentially reaching a trading range of 100,000 to 150,000 [2][16] Nickel Market Analysis - The refined nickel market has shifted to a surplus since 2023, with increasing inventory levels and limited demand growth, primarily influenced by Indonesian nickel supply policies [3][21] - Indonesia's nickel production is expected to significantly decrease, raising the likelihood of higher nickel prices in the future, with projections for 2026 indicating a price range of 120,000 to 160,000 [3][25] - The demand for pure nickel is limited, as the shift in battery technology reduces the consumption growth rate, despite the ongoing expansion in the electric vehicle sector [24][26] Data Center Copper Consumption - Recent discussions around copper consumption in data centers have been sparked by Nvidia's report, which was later corrected to indicate that 1GW of data center requires 200 tons of copper busbars, not 50,000 tons [8][14] - The application of copper in data centers is primarily for distribution equipment, with projections indicating a significant increase in copper demand driven by AI and energy storage needs [8][14] U.S. Tariff Developments - The U.S. government has postponed tariffs on key minerals, which primarily affect silver and platinum, while the copper tariff investigation has concluded with tariffs already in place [14][15] - Future tariff adjustments on refined copper may be revisited in mid-2026, depending on market conditions and the potential for increased copper siphoning from the U.S. market [15][16] Macroeconomic and Fundamental Trends - Global fiscal policies are expected to remain expansionary, with the U.S. economy potentially recovering from a slowdown, which could further support copper price increases [16][17] - Significant investments in the domestic power grid are anticipated, with the State Grid's fixed asset investment projected to reach 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, indicating a robust growth trajectory for copper consumption [16][17]