【招银研究|固收产品月报】债市运行平稳，配置价值仍存（2026年1月）

Key Points Summary Core Viewpoint - The bond market has shown stability with a slight upward trend in interest rates, while the stock market has experienced fluctuations. The overall economic outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with monetary policy expected to stay accommodative, limiting the upward pressure on interest rates [1][2]. Group 1: Fixed Income Product Performance - In the past month, various bond products have achieved positive returns, with the highest being the rights-embedded bond funds at 1.53%, followed by medium to long-term bond funds at 0.16%, and short bond funds at 0.14% [3][4]. - The performance of cash management products and high-grade interbank certificates of deposit remained stable, with returns of 0.09% and 0.14% respectively [3][4]. Group 2: Market Review - The bond market has experienced a phase of slight fluctuations, influenced by stock market volatility and increased long-term bond supply. The central bank's continued accommodative monetary policy is expected to limit the upward movement of interest rates [8][19]. - The short-term funding rates have shown seasonal increases, while medium to long-term rates have remained stable, with AAA interbank certificate rates averaging 1.59% for 3-month and 1.64% for 1-year [8][19]. Group 3: Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is anticipated to experience slight weakness in the short term, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to fluctuate between 1.8% and 2.0%. The yield curve is likely to remain steep due to various economic factors [19][29]. - Credit bonds are expected to maintain stability, with low credit spreads, particularly in the medium to short-duration segments, as liquidity conditions remain favorable [20][29]. Group 4: A-Share Market Performance - The A-share market has shown a mixed performance, with major indices experiencing gains followed by slight pullbacks. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 6.0%, while the Shenzhen 300 and ChiNext indices rose by 3.3% and 5.8% respectively [17][19]. Group 5: Regulatory Developments - New public fund sales regulations were introduced, focusing on reducing fees and promoting longer-term investments, which is expected to enhance liquidity in the bond market [25][26]. - The new REITs regulations aim to support the high-quality development of commercial real estate, with a focus on expanding supply and improving market processes [25][26].