【笔记20260120— 今日大寒，债市乍暖】

Core Viewpoint - The market is perceived as the true intelligence, and it is essential to follow its direction rather than attempt to predict outcomes independently [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The bond market shows signs of warming, with long-term bonds being particularly attractive. The concentration of borrowing for 30-year bonds reached 30%, and the yield spread between 30-year and 10-year bonds is at 50 basis points, a level not seen since the introduction of 30-year bond futures [6]. - The interbank funding market is balanced and slightly loose, with a significant drop in long bond yields. The central bank conducted a 3.24 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with 3.586 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 346 million yuan [3]. - The stock market is experiencing fluctuations, with no unexpected information from the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance. The 10-year government bond yield opened at 1.8325% and fluctuated, reaching a low of 1.815% before recovering to 1.825% [5]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Trading Data - The weighted average rates for various interbank funding instruments are as follows: RO1 at 1.42%, R007 at 1.54%, R014 at 1.63%, and R1M at 1.63%. The trading volume for RO1 was approximately 78.17 billion yuan, while R007 had a volume of about 7.44 billion yuan [4]. - The financing balance in the stock market has decreased, indicating a cooling effect on the market. The dynamics between large-cap and small-cap stocks are shifting, with large-cap stocks struggling to outperform small-cap stocks [9].