英德补贴回归、加拿大关税松口：电动车出海压力缓释

Core Viewpoint - The narrative of a decline in electrification in Europe and North America has been interrupted, with Europe signaling a stronger stance on trade and industrial policy amidst rising tensions over Greenland issues [2]. Group 1: Europe’s Policy Developments - The European Union is responding to U.S. tariff threats by discussing countermeasures and accelerating the diversification of external risks [3]. - The EU Commission released guidelines for the pricing commitments on electric vehicle exports from China, establishing minimum import prices and sales channels [5]. - These guidelines reflect the EU's hard conditions for replacing tariffs with a minimum price mechanism, providing a compliant pathway for certain models to enter the market, thus reducing policy uncertainty for companies [6]. - Germany announced a new €3 billion electric vehicle support plan, with subsidies ranging from €1,500 to €6,000 per vehicle, aiming to support around 800,000 new car purchases or leases by 2029 [8][9]. - The UK is extending subsidies for electric trucks, offering discounts of up to £120,000 for businesses purchasing electric trucks, with the policy lasting until March 2026 [10]. - Both countries' policies indicate a recovery in the passenger vehicle market and a push for electrification in commercial vehicles, reinforcing the view that Europe is not experiencing a systematic decline in electrification by 2026 [11]. Group 2: North America’s Market Changes - Canada has reached a new arrangement with China, allowing up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles to enter the market at a reduced tariff rate of 6.1%, effectively reversing the 100% additional tariff for this quota [12]. - In exchange, China has lowered tariffs on Canadian canola and other agricultural products, transforming the Canadian market from being nearly closed to a limited opening, creating a measurable opportunity for companies with cost advantages [13]. - However, there are concerns that the quota and political negotiations may limit the growth potential, making the certainty of this arrangement less favorable compared to Europe’s institutional signals [14]. Group 3: Implications for Chinese Battery Companies - For Chinese battery companies worried about a decline in overseas electric vehicle markets by 2026, the signals from Europe and Canada suggest two key changes: - The narrative of export challenges should not simply extrapolate the U.S. slowdown to a global decline, as Europe is shifting towards calculable access mechanisms, with Germany's subsidies and the UK's electric truck incentives potentially pulling demand back into a defined fiscal framework [15]. - Canada's quota-based tariff reduction provides a "non-U.S. pathway" for the North American market, but this opportunity heavily relies on diplomatic and industrial exchanges, necessitating local cooperation and compliance to mitigate risks [15].