“木头姐”2026展望：“里根经济学”升级版，美股继续“黄金时代”，美元走高压制黄金

Core Viewpoint - ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood predicts a "golden age" for the U.S. stock market driven by deregulation, tax cuts, sound monetary policy, and innovative technologies, likening the next three years to "Reaganomics on steroids" [2][4] Economic Outlook - Despite continuous growth in real GDP over the past three years, the underlying U.S. economy has experienced a rolling recession and is poised for a strong rebound [3][11] - Wood emphasizes that the U.S. economy will benefit significantly from policy changes, including a reduction in effective corporate tax rates to around 10% [4][25] - Inflation is expected to be controlled and may even turn negative, driven by productivity gains [5][30] GDP Growth Projections - The nominal GDP growth rate in the U.S. is projected to remain between 6% and 8% in the coming years, primarily driven by productivity improvements rather than inflation [6][51] Market Impact - Wood anticipates that the relative advantage of U.S. investment returns will lead to a significant appreciation of the dollar, reminiscent of the 1980s when the dollar nearly doubled in value [7][68] - The strengthening dollar is expected to suppress gold prices, while Bitcoin will exhibit a different trend due to its supply mechanism and low asset correlation [8][66] Valuation Concerns - Wood does not believe an AI bubble has formed, arguing that while current price-to-earnings ratios are historically high, corporate earnings growth driven by AI and robotics will absorb these valuations [9][82] - Historical patterns suggest that significant bull markets can occur alongside P/E compression, as seen in previous market cycles [84] Consumer Confidence and Spending - Consumer confidence among low-income groups has dropped to its lowest level since the early 1980s, indicating a tightly coiled spring with potential for rebound [22][23] - Tax cuts and regulatory easing are expected to boost disposable income growth significantly, potentially increasing from approximately 2% to 8.3% annually [25][28] Technological Innovation and Productivity - The integration of AI, robotics, and other technologies is anticipated to drive a robust capital expenditure cycle, marking one of the strongest periods of investment in history [20][70] - Productivity growth is expected to accelerate to 4-6% annually, further reducing unit labor cost inflation [41][46] Gold and Bitcoin Market Dynamics - Gold prices have surged significantly, while Bitcoin has seen a decline, with supply dynamics influencing their respective markets [54][56] - The historical context suggests that gold prices are currently at a high level relative to M2 money supply, indicating potential overvaluation [60] Future of the Dollar - Predictions indicate that U.S. investment returns will improve relative to other regions, potentially leading to a stronger dollar in the coming years [68]