极致贪婪时刻！美银基金经理调查：全球经济“不着陆”首次成共识，股票对冲策略几近崩溃

Group 1 - The core sentiment among global investors is one of "extreme greed," with market sentiment reaching its highest level since mid-2021 [1] - A recent Bank of America survey indicates that cash levels in investment portfolios have plummeted to historical lows as fund managers aggressively pursue risk assets [2][9] - The macroeconomic outlook has shifted decisively, with the "no landing" scenario becoming the baseline expectation for investors, surpassing both "soft landing" and "hard landing" for the first time in three years [3][7] Group 2 - The Bank of America's "Bull-Bear Indicator" has surged to a level of 9.4, indicating "extreme bullishness," which is often interpreted as a contrarian sell signal [4] - There is a significant increase in stock allocations, with a net overweight of 48% in equities, the highest since December 2024, while bond allocations have decreased to a net underweight of 35%, the lowest since September 2022 [12] - Investors are increasingly favoring cyclical sectors, with bank stocks being the most over-allocated sector at a net overweight of 34%, contrasting sharply with a net underweight of 30% in consumer staples, the lowest since February 2014 [12] Group 3 - Despite the high risk appetite, there is a notable increase in the popularity of "long gold" trades, which has become the most crowded trade, with 51% of investors favoring it, surpassing the previously dominant "long seven tech giants" [13] - Geopolitical risks are perceived as the largest tail risk by 28% of investors, followed by concerns over an "AI bubble" and rising bond yields [15] - The upcoming U.S. midterm elections are expected to result in a "divided Congress," with 60% of respondents predicting that Democrats will control the House and Republicans will control the Senate [17]