行业数据 | 2025房地产供求关系持续改善，多重动能筑牢2026稳市场基础

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is entering a new phase of stabilization, supported by proactive adjustments in investment and new construction, leading to improved supply-demand dynamics and a gradual recovery from previous downturns [1][3]. Group 1: New Construction, Investment, and Transaction Dynamics - The balance among new construction, investment, and transaction volumes is crucial for the long-term stability of the real estate sector. In 2025, new construction area decreased by 20.4% to 590 million square meters, with residential new construction down by 19.8% to 430 million square meters, marking a historical low where new construction only accounted for 67% of new home sales [3][6]. - The proactive adjustment in new construction has alleviated inventory pressure, with major cities seeing a decline in narrow inventory levels, and new supply generally falling below transaction volumes. This dynamic adaptation has prevented exacerbation of supply-demand imbalances and ensured the competitiveness of quality new projects [3][6]. - In 2025, total real estate development investment reached 8.3 trillion yuan, down 17.2% year-on-year, with its share of new home sales dropping to 98.6%. This indicates a return to positive cash flow for the industry, reflecting a sales-driven investment model that supports project operations and profit realization [6][8]. Group 2: Financing Environment and Economic Support - The national economy showed resilience in 2025, with GDP reaching 140.2 trillion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year. This economic backdrop, along with rising urbanization rates at 67.89%, provides a supportive environment for the real estate market [8]. - Financial indicators improved, with M2 money supply growing by 8.5% year-on-year. The recovery in resident long-term loans, which increased by 10.6 billion yuan in December, reflects effective market stabilization measures [8]. - Continued policy support from financial authorities, including adjustments to monetary policy tools and loan extensions for "white list" projects, aims to enhance the financing environment and reduce burdens on existing projects, allowing for a more extended adjustment period for the industry [8]. Group 3: Sales and Price Trends - In 2025, new residential sales area totaled 880 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year, with sales value declining by 12.6% to 840 billion yuan. The cumulative decline was exacerbated by a high base from the previous year, although monthly data showed signs of marginal improvement [9][12]. - The average price of new homes in December 2025 saw a year-on-year decline of 3.0%, with first-tier cities down 1.7%. However, the number of cities experiencing price stabilization increased to 12, indicating a potential structural recovery in certain markets [12][14]. - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic growth and stabilize prices, which may provide new support for housing prices in 2026, particularly in areas with high population density and proximity to industrial clusters [12][14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The real estate market is expected to stabilize in 2026, with sales volume and value declines anticipated to narrow. The proactive adjustments in supply and demand indicators since 2025 are expected to yield positive results, with improved buyer confidence [14][15]. - Inventory reduction remains a priority, with new construction expected to decrease by around 10% in 2026. Policies aimed at acquiring existing properties for affordable housing and adjusting land supply dynamically will facilitate inventory clearance [15]. - The industry is transitioning towards a healthier ecosystem, with a widening gap between investment and sales volumes. The focus is shifting from expansion to optimization of existing assets, which is expected to create a more sustainable operational environment [15].