国泰海通｜交运：春运预售开始启动，预计需求保持旺盛——2026年“春运”系列报告之（一）

Core Insights - The Chinese civil aviation industry has maintained strong private demand over the past three years, with expectations for continued robust demand during the 2026 Spring Festival travel season, which has already begun pre-sales [1] - The aviation supply in China is entering a low growth era, with structural changes in demand being a core issue. From 2023 to 2025, the demand for air travel is expected to recover rapidly, with private demand remaining strong while business travel remains below 2019 levels [1] - The overall passenger flow in China's civil aviation is estimated to grow by 5-6% year-on-year in 2025, with a cumulative increase of 17% compared to 2019 [1] - The passenger load factor is expected to reach a historical high in 2025, while ticket prices remain at historical lows, with estimates indicating that domestic ticket prices including fuel will be lower than in 2024 and 2019 [1] - The industry’s profitability has not yet recovered, primarily due to the low proportion of business travel compared to 2019, leading airlines to prioritize load factors and adopt a price-for-volume strategy [1] Group 1 - The 2025 Spring Festival travel season saw a record high in passenger flow, with over 9 billion people moving across regions, a year-on-year increase of 7% [2] - The aviation passenger flow is estimated to grow by 7% year-on-year, with domestic growth of 4-5% and international growth nearing 30% [2] - Domestic ticket prices are estimated to have decreased by nearly 10% year-on-year, influenced by high base numbers and increased high-speed rail services [2] Group 2 - For the 2026 Spring Festival, demand is expected to remain strong, with pre-sales for tickets already showing significant year-on-year growth [3] - The aviation market is entering a traditional off-season post-New Year, with airlines managing low-price irrational competition [3] - The Chinese aviation industry is anticipated to enter a "super cycle," driven by market-driven pricing and a recovery in demand structure, which will support ticket prices and profitability in 2026 [3]