国泰海通 · 晨报260121｜宏观、地产、商业航天

Macro - The Chinese economy achieved its annual target for 2025, with a GDP growth of 5.0% for the year and a quarterly growth rate of 4.5% in Q4, slightly down due to base effects [3] - Economic characteristics in Q4 showed continued dual differentiation: strong industrial production but structural mismatches in capacity and demand, and a divergence between external and internal demand, with external demand supported by optimized export structures while internal demand lagged due to slow recovery in consumption and investment [3] - The production side showed bright spots, with industrial growth in December reversing previous slowdowns, driven by high-end manufacturing and green transformation, while the service sector's production index grew by 5.0% year-on-year [3] - Consumption showed structural optimization but faced year-end pressure, with rural consumption, online shopping, and upgraded goods performing well, while major consumption sectors like automobiles and real estate showed average performance [3] - Investment continued to face pressure due to funding constraints, insufficient project reserves, and weak demand, leading to a policy focus on expanding domestic demand and promoting new infrastructure and equipment updates to counter external uncertainties and internal weaknesses [3] Real Estate - The rental yield for residential properties has increased from 1.5% to 1.9% from 2020 to 2025, but remains low compared to international standards, with inflation-adjusted yields being a more effective comparison metric [7][8] - In Q4 2025, rental yields plus CPI in second-tier cities began to stabilize and improve, with projections indicating a recovery from 2.3% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2024 and maintaining that level in 2025 [9] - The proportion of residents willing to buy homes increased to about 16% by the end of December, reflecting improved market confidence, although the proportion of declining listing prices rose to about 19% [10] - Real estate investment is expected to decrease further in 2026, focusing on quality over quantity, with a shift in attention from financial risks to economic contributions from the real estate sector [15][16][17] Aerospace - The launch cadence of the Long March 12 rocket has accelerated, indicating a steady growth in China's commercial space industry, with a record 92 launches in 2025 [22][23] - The commercial space sector is expected to experience rapid development in 2026, with new rocket types set to debut and increased capabilities for satellite internet constellation deployment [23]