中金：当极端天气按下大宗商品“波动键”

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the La Niña phenomenon on global commodity markets, highlighting the increasing uncertainty in pricing due to climate changes and geopolitical factors. It emphasizes the historical correlation between extreme weather events and commodity price fluctuations, indicating that the current weak La Niña may still disrupt supply chains and affect prices across various sectors [3][4][10]. Weather Outlook - A weak La Niña has been established, expected to transition to neutral conditions by spring 2026. The current La Niña is not anticipated to cause widespread cold winters due to global warming trends, but it may still influence global circulation patterns and lead to unusual precipitation anomalies [5][11][16]. - The probability of transitioning to El Niño conditions by the third quarter of 2026 has risen to over 60%, which could increase the frequency of extreme weather events [5][12][22]. Commodity Impact - Weather disturbances are expected to affect different commodity sectors in varied ways, with energy, metals, and agricultural products each responding differently to temperature and precipitation changes [6][35]. Energy Sector - In North America, natural gas prices are expected to rise due to increased heating demand, with NYMEX prices projected to range between $4-5 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) during the off-season [6][36][37]. - European natural gas prices are anticipated to decrease due to low inventory levels despite a warm winter, with TTF prices expected to drop to $9-10 per MMBtu [6][40][42]. Metals Sector - Heavy rainfall may disrupt production and transportation in key mining regions, particularly in Indonesia and South America, leading to increased costs and production interruptions [7][49][50]. - The impact of La Niña on aluminum prices may arise from increased electricity costs due to reduced hydropower generation in affected regions [7][53]. Agricultural Sector - The La Niña phenomenon is expected to have a limited impact on South American soybean production, with Brazil's soybean yield projected to reach 178 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year [8][66][67]. - Palm oil production in Southeast Asia is also expected to remain stable, with short-term bullish expectations despite some localized weather disturbances [8][72].