股债汇三杀！“抛售美国”交易重回，习惯了TACO的市场为何突变？

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tensions surrounding Greenland and Japan's domestic fiscal concerns have disrupted the previously calm financial markets, leading to a significant sell-off in U.S. assets [2][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - U.S. financial markets experienced a "triple whammy" with major indices like the S&P 500 dropping over 2%, erasing all gains for the year and marking the largest single-day decline in over three months [3][6]. - The VIX index, which measures market volatility, surged to its highest level since November of the previous year, indicating heightened investor fear [3]. - Gold prices reached a historic high of over $4,700 per ounce, while U.S. Treasury yields rose significantly, leading to a decline in the dollar's value [3]. Group 2: Causes of Market Turmoil - The initial trigger for the global sell-off was a spike in Japan's 30-year government bond yields, which rose over 25 basis points due to concerns over Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's tax cuts and spending plans [3][8]. - This spike threatened the "carry trade" strategy of borrowing low-interest yen to invest in global assets, causing a ripple effect that pushed bond yields higher in other regions [8]. - Investor patience regarding the Trump administration's actions, including its aggressive stance towards Venezuela and NATO allies, is waning, leading to increased market anxiety [3]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Strategies - Analysts suggest that creating market volatility may be a strategy for European governments to exert pressure, as President Trump is particularly sensitive to market movements [4]. - The previous month saw historically low volatility in U.S. bonds, stocks, and the dollar, attributed to traders' immunity to Trump's rhetoric, a strategy known as "TACO" trading [4]. - The recent market downturn signifies a reversal of this sentiment, with long-term U.S. Treasury bonds experiencing the most significant impact, as yields approached their highest levels for 2023 [4]. Group 4: Geopolitical Concerns and Future Outlook - The aggressive posture of the Trump administration towards European allies has raised investor concerns, prompting some, like Denmark's AkademikerPension, to divest from U.S. Treasuries due to perceived credit risks [10][11]. - Despite a general belief that diplomatic solutions will be reached regarding Greenland, the chaotic negotiation style of the White House is undermining market confidence [11]. - Analysts predict that while a resolution may eventually be found, the interim period will likely see increased volatility, benefiting sectors such as defense, finance, and gold [11].