欲加之罪何患无辞，贵金属一枝独秀：申万期货早间评论-20260121

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strong performance of precious metals amidst geopolitical uncertainties and macroeconomic factors, suggesting a continued upward trend for these assets [1][3]. Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold continues to rebound, driven by increased market demand for safe-haven assets due to rising geopolitical uncertainties [3]. - Silver and platinum are supported not only by macroeconomic factors but also by supply-demand gaps, with silver experiencing tight supply and robust industrial demand [3]. - The long-term upward trend for gold is expected to persist, bolstered by factors such as weakened dollar credibility, central bank purchases, and heightened geopolitical risks [3]. Group 2: Oil Market - The oil market is experiencing a shift in sentiment, with geopolitical risk premiums decreasing as President Trump adopts a more cautious stance regarding Iran [2][14]. - OPEC's report indicates that global demand for oil from member countries is expected to remain stable, with daily demand projected to increase to 43 million barrels by 2026 [2][14]. Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices have decreased by 1.28%, with tight concentrate supply and fluctuating smelting profits impacting the market [20]. - The overall growth in smelting output continues, but the supply disruptions are shifting global copper supply-demand expectations towards a deficit [20]. Group 4: Economic Indicators - U.S. inflation pressures are easing, with December's core CPI rebound lower than expected, indicating a potential continuation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [3][12]. - The macroeconomic environment is expected to support the long-term performance of precious metals, as liquidity remains loose [3]. Group 5: Domestic Policy - The National Development and Reform Commission of China plans to focus on strengthening domestic circulation and expanding domestic demand in 2026, which may influence various sectors [7]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to enhance water resource management and promote water-saving industries, targeting a significant increase in agricultural irrigation efficiency by 2030 [8].