瑞银：消费出现复苏迹象，行业估值仍有吸引力

Group 1: Consumer Confidence and Market Trends - UBS believes that consumer confidence is improving, with a notable shift in preferences among consumers [3] - The firm conducted discussions with approximately 35 consumer companies and observed a recovery in consumer sentiment despite a short-term downturn in the real estate market [3] - UBS indicates that the valuation of the consumer sector remains attractive, being about one standard deviation below the 10-year average, and has not yet reflected the recovery in consumption [3] Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - The snack industry is expected to benefit from category expansion and channel restructuring, presenting structural growth opportunities [6] - In the liquor sector, private consumption and potential easing of drinking bans for government institutions may support mid-range liquor demand, with companies accelerating channel transformation for sustainable long-term earnings growth [5] - The ready-to-drink beverage (FMB) segment is projected to capture market share from bottled beverages, driven by rapid store expansion and more efficient business models [5] Group 3: Dairy and Other Beverages - Despite resilience in fresh milk, liquid milk sales are expected to remain weak in 2025, with a slight recovery anticipated in 2026 due to improved raw milk supply and demand, alongside marketing and innovation efforts [5] - The beer segment is experiencing short-term consumption fatigue, but product diversification and home consumption channel expansion continue to drive premiumization [5] Group 4: Other Consumer Goods - The pet food sector shows confidence in domestic market growth despite varying overseas growth prospects [7] - The home appliance industry is expected to see higher growth overseas compared to the domestic market, with strategies to cope with rising material costs differing among companies [9] - In the jewelry sector, brands with differentiated product designs and craftsmanship may pursue consolidation following VAT reforms [10]