NWF(SH:600975) 21世纪经济报道·2026-01-21 04:16Core Viewpoint - New Five Star is experiencing a significant increase in losses, with a projected net profit of -700 million to -960 million yuan for Q4 2025, marking a shift from profit to loss compared to the previous year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's Q4 loss reached 780 million yuan, a substantial increase from the 58 million yuan loss in Q3 2025 [1] - The decline in profitability is attributed to a significant drop in pig prices and the company's accounting practices regarding biological assets [1][10] - New Five Star's sales price for pigs fell from 13.94 yuan/kg in Q3 to 11.31 yuan/kg in Q4 2025 [7] Group 2: Industry Context - The overall industry is facing similar challenges, with competitors like Muyuan and Wens experiencing flat or minimal profits in Q4 2025 [1][12] - The average market price for pigs dropped significantly, with prices falling below 12 yuan/kg in the last two months of 2025 [7] - The company’s cost of raising pigs is not competitive compared to industry leaders, with estimated costs around 14.7 to 15.3 yuan/kg [7] Group 3: Operational Insights - New Five Star's primary business is pig farming, which accounted for 84.21% of its revenue and 98.17% of its gross profit in the first half of 2025 [4] - The company has seen a 66.4% increase in pig sales volume in Q4 compared to Q3, further exacerbating losses [9] - The company has also had to write down the value of its biological assets due to falling prices, impacting its financial statements [10] Group 4: Future Outlook - The overall profitability of the pig farming industry is expected to decline in 2025, with Q4 likely being the most challenging quarter [17] - There is a possibility that other companies in the industry may also need to write down their biological assets, leading to increased losses [17] - 2025 is projected to be a low point for the industry, with profitability slightly better than in 2023, but with more concentrated losses in Q4 [17]