黄金突破4800美元：避险逻辑共振下的“系统性定价重估”

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in gold prices, which have surpassed $4800 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions, a weakening dollar, and strong demand from central banks and institutions [4][6][8]. Group 1: Geopolitical Risks and Market Reactions - The immediate trigger for the gold price increase is the escalation of global geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning U.S. trade policies and military actions, which have heightened market uncertainty and increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [7]. Group 2: Currency and Monetary Policy Dynamics - The U.S. dollar index has significantly declined, reaching approximately 98.77, which typically inversely affects gold prices. The market anticipates continued dovish policies from the Federal Reserve, reducing the attractiveness of holding cash and dollar-denominated assets [9]. Group 3: Central Bank and Institutional Demand - Unlike previous market trends driven by speculative funds, the current gold price increase is largely supported by long-term allocation from central banks, which are diversifying their reserves away from dollar assets. This trend is expected to continue amid rising geopolitical and financial instability [11]. - Data from the World Gold Council indicates that global gold ETF inflows are at historically high levels, reflecting sustained demand from institutions and long-term investors [11][12]. Group 4: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - Technically, gold prices have broken through key resistance levels of $4400, $4500, and $4600, reinforcing a bullish trend. This positive feedback loop has attracted trend-following funds, further amplifying the market momentum [14]. - The article suggests that if global political and financial uncertainties persist, gold will maintain its position as a core asset for hedging systemic risks, evolving from a mere defensive tool to a strategic asset in portfolios [14].