LSEG跟“宗” | 特朗普：四个月我都不要再等下去了！

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current sentiment and positioning of funds in the U.S. futures market for precious metals, particularly focusing on silver, gold, and platinum, highlighting a cautious approach among speculators due to perceived high prices and market uncertainties [2][30]. Group 1: Silver Market Analysis - As of January 13, silver fund longs decreased by 16% to 3,453 tons, the lowest level since July 24, 2012; shorts fell by 18% to 1,114 tons, the lowest since September 12, 2017; net longs dropped by 15% to 2,340 tons, the lowest since the end of February 2024 [2][5]. - Speculators in the U.S. futures market are hesitant to go long on silver due to high prices but are also reluctant to short, leading to a wait-and-see approach [2][5]. - Despite expectations of delayed interest rate cuts in the U.S., precious metal prices rose, partly due to news of Powell's investigation, which signals potential market instability [2][30]. Group 2: Gold and Platinum Market Insights - Gold fund longs increased by 8% to 488 tons, while shorts decreased by 2% to 63 tons, resulting in a net long increase of 10% to 425 tons, the highest in three weeks [5][10]. - Platinum fund longs fell by 2% to 30 tons, and shorts decreased by 5% to 18 tons, marking the lowest levels in 134 weeks; net longs increased by 3% to 12 tons, the highest in three weeks [6][10]. - The article notes that platinum is currently undervalued relative to silver, with the historical exchange rate of platinum to silver at a low of 25.895 ounces of silver per ounce of platinum, down 31% from the peak in June 2025 [30]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Projections - The article highlights that the market sentiment towards copper is overly optimistic, with fund shorts at the lowest level since 2007, indicating potential risks in the copper market [16][30]. - The expectation for interest rate cuts has been pushed back, which could serve as a reason for a potential softening in precious metal prices [30]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the gold-to-mining stock ratio, which has shown a decline, indicating that if gold prices continue to rise while mining stocks fall, caution is warranted [19][22].