存储芯片现状：暴涨、缺货、鸽子满天飞

Core Viewpoint - The storage chip market is currently experiencing significant volatility, with frequent price changes and supply issues, leading to a phenomenon referred to as "pigeon" incidents where suppliers fail to deliver as promised [4][5][6]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The storage market is characterized by a high demand for DDR4 and DDR5, with NAND Flash and NOR Flash also seeing substantial price increases, particularly after December [7][10]. - The price of a common 8Gb DDR4 chip has surged from $1.7 in March last year to nearly $35 recently, while Micron's 16Gb DDR4 has seen prices rise from $2.88 to $80 [11][12]. - The market is influenced by several factors, including increased participation from distributors, rapid price changes, and a hot market environment, which has led to a rise in "pigeon" incidents [6][12]. Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - Distributors report that many suppliers are failing to deliver on agreed orders, with some only able to fulfill partial quantities, leading to frustration in the market [5][6]. - The phenomenon of "pigeon" incidents is exacerbated by the complexity of the supply chain, with many new entrants lacking stable channels for procurement [6][12]. - Established distributors with reliable channels are less likely to encounter these issues, as they focus on selling their own inventory rather than engaging in speculative trading [6][12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The storage market is expected to continue its upward trend, with projections indicating a 55-60% increase in DRAM contract prices and a 33-38% rise in NAND Flash prices in the coming quarters [16]. - The demand for NAND Flash is driven by AI applications, with significant increases in enterprise SSD requirements, leading to structural shortages and price hikes [12][14]. - The introduction of new contract forms by suppliers, requiring full upfront payments for guaranteed supply, indicates a tightening market and heightened competition for available resources [14][15].