虎嗅APP·2026-01-21 09:58Core Viewpoint - The dynamic balance in the lithium battery supply chain is highlighted, with a focus on the evolving relationship between Tianqi Materials and CATL, indicating a shift towards reduced dependency and increased diversification in supply contracts [2][8]. Group 1: Cooperation with CATL - Tianqi Materials established a wholly-owned subsidiary, Ningde Kaixin, in 2015 to provide close services to CATL [4]. - Revenue from CATL reached 10 billion CNY in 2018, accounting for 35.7% of Tianqi's lithium battery material sales; this increased to 122 billion CNY in 2022, representing 58.4% of sales [5]. - In 2023, revenue from CATL decreased to 81 billion CNY, making up 57.6% of Tianqi's sales, and is projected to drop further to 50 billion CNY in 2024, which would be 45.6% of total sales [5][7]. Group 2: Reducing Dependency - The supply agreement between Tianqi Materials and CATL is set to expire at the end of 2025, with no news of renewal, indicating Tianqi's increasing options [8]. - Tianqi has disclosed significant supply contracts, including a partnership with Chuangneng New Energy to supply at least 550,000 tons of electrolyte products by 2030 [10]. - Additional contracts include an agreement with Ruipulan Jun for 800,000 tons and a framework agreement with AVIC New Energy for 725,000 tons, totaling 2.945 million tons across multiple contracts [12]. Group 3: Production Capacity and Market Dynamics - Tianqi's electrolyte production capacity is expected to reach 1 million tons by 2026, with 80% of this capacity already pre-sold, leaving little room for long-term contracts with CATL [13]. - The company anticipates a tripling of production over the next three years, with secured sales channels and potentially higher prices than those offered to CATL [14]. - CATL is also diversifying its supply sources, including a contract with Enchem for 350,000 tons of electrolyte from 2026 to 2030, indicating a shift in CATL's supply strategy [15][17]. Group 4: Financial Performance - Tianqi's lithium battery material shipments increased steadily, but gross profit fluctuated significantly, with a peak gross profit of 88 billion CNY in 2022 and a drop to 24 billion CNY in 2024 [22][24]. - The gross profit margin fell from 39.6% in 2022 to 18.9% in 2024, reflecting the impact of pricing pressures in the market [24]. - Despite the challenges, Tianqi's performance remains resilient compared to other cyclical stocks, with a gross profit margin of 20% considered acceptable in the manufacturing sector [29][30]. Group 5: Industry Positioning - Tianqi Materials has transitioned into a cyclical stock, a shift that was not initially intended, but reflects a strategic adaptation to market conditions [37]. - The company has broadened its customer base to reduce reliance on a single client, demonstrating an understanding of industry trends and the importance of flexibility in supply chains [37].