桥水达利欧警告：特朗普政策可能引发“资本战”

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns that President Trump's policies may lead to a "capital war," causing foreign governments and investors to reduce their investments in U.S. assets [2][5] Group 1: Economic and Market Implications - Dalio highlights that escalating trade tensions and increasing fiscal deficits could undermine confidence in U.S. debt, prompting investors to shift towards hard assets like gold [2][6] - He emphasizes the importance of diversification in investment portfolios, recommending that investors allocate 5% to 15% of their portfolios to gold as a key hedge [2][6] - Following Dalio's remarks, gold prices surged, reaching over $4,760 for the first time, reflecting a flight to safety amid fears of a potential tariff war between the U.S. and Europe [2] Group 2: Potential European Responses - Deutsche Bank warns that Europe, holding over $8 trillion in U.S. assets, could "weaponize" capital in response to U.S. tariffs, escalating the conflict beyond mere trade disputes [5][12] - The European Union is considering three levels of response to U.S. tariffs, including postponing trade agreements, imposing tariffs on $108 billion worth of U.S. goods, and activating the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI) to counter economic pressure [8][9][10] Group 3: Capital War Risks - Dalio expresses concern that countries holding significant amounts of U.S. dollars and debt may become reluctant to finance U.S. deficits if trust erodes [6][12] - Historical precedents show that economic conflicts can escalate from trade disputes to capital and currency conflicts, leading to a preference for hard currencies over holding each other's debt [6][12] - Deutsche Bank notes that if the ACI is activated, it could lead to regulatory tightening and tax investigations on U.S. assets in Europe, potentially causing asymmetric damage to U.S. businesses [12] Group 4: Market Reactions and Predictions - Market tensions have already emerged, with U.S. stock futures, European markets, and the dollar under pressure, while gold and safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc and euro have gained [14] - Goldman Sachs estimates that a 10% tariff could reduce the GDP of affected countries by 0.1% to 0.2%, with Germany facing a relatively larger impact [13]