行业“反内卷”初见成效！

Group 1: Market Characteristics - The current market is not yet at the top, as indicated by valuation and trading metrics [1] - Valuation signals include a securitization rate of 82%, ERP exceeding 1 standard deviation but not reaching 2, and main industry valuations being relatively reasonable compared to the market [1] - Trading signals suggest that the market is not at a peak, with RSI below 70 and sentiment indicators not exceeding 80 [1] Group 2: Aviation Industry Supply Constraints - The aviation industry is experiencing supply tightness due to an aging fleet and delays in new aircraft deliveries, with Airbus expected to deliver 793 aircraft in 2025 and Boeing 600, both significantly lower than pre-pandemic levels [2] - The backlog of orders for both manufacturers exceeds 15,000 aircraft, equating to 8-10 years of production capacity, with delivery cycles extending from 4.5 years in 2018 to 6.8 years currently [2] - By 2025, the total number of passenger aircraft in China is projected to be 4,271, with only a 4% increase year-on-year, facing a retirement peak where over 600 aircraft will exceed 20 years of age by 2030 [2] Group 3: Demand and Revenue Growth - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is promoting visa-free policies, with visa-free foreign visitors making up over 70% of total inbound travelers, driving growth in international routes [3] - The upcoming Spring Festival travel season is expected to see a 5.3% year-on-year increase in daily passenger volume, with ticket prices projected to be 20% higher than actual prices in 2025, enhancing airline profitability [4]