【广发宏观贺骁束】核心线索渐变，价格潜流蓄势：2026年通胀环境展望

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the inflation landscape for 2025 is characterized by a bottoming out and stabilization, with the GDP deflator index showing a decline of -1.2% year-on-year in Q2, the lowest since 2010, and a slight recovery to -1.0% in Q3 [1][11] - The article highlights that the manufacturing investment, as a representative of productive capital expenditure, has seen a decline, leading to a gradual easing of supply-demand pressure [1][11] - Key price increase signals have emerged in sectors such as storage, non-ferrous metals, and phosphorous chemicals, indicating a potential recovery in prices [1][12] Group 2 - For 2026, the article discusses the technical detail of the base period rotation for the PPI, which will be based on 2025, with updates to the survey directory and weight adjustments reflecting the latest industrial revenue proportions [2][14] - The macro logic for 2026 includes a likely recovery from the low investment gap in the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, stabilization of the real estate market, and a narrowing consumption gap, all of which are expected to positively influence prices [2][17] - The financial logic indicates that leading indicators such as M1 suggest a continuation of price recovery for domestic industrial products, with global liquidity conditions remaining supportive [2][20] Group 3 - The article identifies four key industrial factors influencing prices for 2026, including the pig cycle, the easing of capacity pressure in key industries, the cumulative effects of anti-involution policies, and the profit cycle indicating limited expansion in manufacturing investment [3][23] - The manufacturing sector's contribution to PPI decline is significant, with eight key industries accounting for 88% of the cumulative impact, particularly in automotive, electrical machinery, and computer communication electronics [3][26] - The article emphasizes the importance of upstream commodities, such as coal, steel, copper, and oil, in analyzing PPI, noting that price volatility in these commodities can significantly affect PPI contributions [4][30] Group 4 - The article outlines five key signals regarding CPI for 2026, including favorable base effects, the impact of core goods and services, and the expected recovery in medical service prices due to aging population needs [5][34] - The potential influence of gold prices on CPI is discussed, with projections indicating a reduced contribution compared to the previous year, reflecting a high base effect [5][37] - Housing prices are highlighted as a critical variable, with expectations for stabilization in the second half of 2026, influenced by policy measures aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [6][39] Group 5 - The comprehensive assessment of price data for the year indicates a moderate recovery in both PPI and CPI, with CPI expected to rise to a peak in Q1 before stabilizing in subsequent quarters [7][43] - The baseline scenario predicts average CPI and PPI values of 0.8% and -0.6% respectively, with variations in conservative and optimistic scenarios also presented [7][44] - Structural price increase signals for 2026 include the impact of anti-involution policies, new energy industries, and the aging population's influence on service prices [8][47][48]