2025年商用车行业六大特点！2026年走势如何？| 光耀评车

Core Viewpoint - The commercial vehicle industry in China experienced a rapid recovery in 2025, with overall sales reaching approximately 4.3 million units, marking an 11% year-on-year increase, nearing the peak levels of 2018 and 2019 [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - The total sales volume of commercial vehicles in 2025 was 4.296 million units, which is comparable to the sales during the "Four Trillion Project" in 2010 and slightly lower than the peak years of 2018 and 2019 [1] - The heavy and medium-duty truck segment saw significant growth, with sales reaching 1.27 million units, a net increase of over 240,000 units, while light trucks also grew from 1.9 million to over 2.02 million units, a net increase of over 120,000 units [2] Group 2: Policy Impact - The "policy market" effect was significant, with the old vehicle replacement policy for National III and IV trucks driving growth in the medium and heavy-duty truck market. The subsidies for scrapping and updating vehicles remained unchanged, with a maximum subsidy of 140,000 yuan for new energy trucks and 110,000 yuan for fuel and gas trucks [5] - The reduction of the purchase tax for new energy vehicles starting January 1, 2026, combined with the old-for-new policy expiring on December 31, 2025, significantly boosted the sales of new energy heavy trucks, exceeding 230,000 units with a domestic penetration rate close to 29% [5] Group 3: Export Performance - 2025 marked a milestone for commercial vehicle exports, with total exports exceeding 1 million units for the first time, reaching nearly 1.06 million units. Light truck exports surpassed 500,000 units, while heavy truck exports also set a record at 340,000 units [7] Group 4: Market Trends - The sales of gas trucks increased due to lower gas prices and subdued freight rates, with the N1, N2, and N3 class gas trucks all showing growth. The blue plate light truck segment is entering a replacement cycle, with electric, gas, and diesel models all experiencing growth [9][10] - Despite the overall sales growth, the industry faces severe competition and a downgrade in consumer spending, leading to a deterioration in product structure. The market saw a general price decline of 5%-15% for trucks compared to the previous year, with some models experiencing even larger price drops [12]