国泰海通｜非银：零售及自营业务驱动全年高增——上市券商2025Q4业绩前瞻

Core Viewpoint - Retail and proprietary businesses are the main drivers of annual performance growth, benefiting from the resonance of allocation power and performance elasticity, with a focus on high-quality leading firms and wealth management characteristics [1]. Group 1: Performance Expectations - The performance of listed securities firms is expected to improve significantly due to active trading and base effects, with a projected year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of 46.4% [2]. - For 2025, the adjusted operating revenue of 42 listed securities firms is expected to rise by 34.1% to 565.7 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to reach 216.4 billion yuan [2]. - The Q4 single-quarter profit is projected to be 47.3 billion yuan, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase but a 27% quarter-on-quarter decrease [2]. Group 2: Business Contributions - Active trading has driven significant increases in market transaction volume and margin financing balance, supporting retail business growth alongside the recovery of proprietary business [3]. - For 2025, brokerage and credit businesses are expected to contribute 50.4% to revenue growth, while investment business is projected to contribute 45.5% [3]. - Daily average stock trading volume is expected to reach 2.0576 trillion yuan, a 70% year-on-year increase, and daily average margin financing balance is expected to reach 20.793 trillion yuan, a 33% year-on-year increase [3]. - Brokerage net income and interest net income are expected to grow by 49% and 57% year-on-year, respectively [3]. - Proprietary business income is expected to grow due to the recovery in equity markets and stable bond markets [3]. - Investment banking revenue is projected to increase by 12% year-on-year, supported by a marginal recovery in equity financing [3]. - Asset management business scale is expected to see a slight year-on-year increase, leading to a 4% year-on-year growth in asset management revenue [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The company recommends increasing holdings in high-quality leading securities firms that benefit from incremental capital entering the market [4].