国泰海通｜轻工：出口链行业专题一：库存周期复盘与景气度线索

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the inventory cycles in the U.S. furniture market, highlighting the dynamics between retailers and wholesalers, and the implications for demand and supply in the furniture industry [1][2]. Group 1: Inventory Cycle Analysis - Retailers are in a passive destocking phase from April 2025 to July 2025, as sales growth outpaces inventory growth, leading to an increase in actual inventory levels [1]. - Wholesalers are in an active restocking phase from October 2024 to August 2025, with inventory growth exceeding revenue growth, indicating a significant increase in actual inventory levels [1]. - By September 2025, wholesalers will transition to a passive destocking phase as revenue growth surpasses inventory growth, despite an increase in actual inventory amounts [1]. Group 2: Brand and Channel Inventory Performance - Furniture brands are experiencing historically low inventory-to-sales ratios, aligning with the trend of retailers reducing inventory since May 2023 [2]. - Home Depot's inventory-to-sales ratio has returned to historical norms, indicating a potential for further restocking, although demand remains constrained [2]. - The overall inventory levels of furniture and building material channel merchants are higher than those of brand merchants, reflecting the trend of wholesalers restocking more than destocking since September 2024 [2]. Group 3: Demand Improvement Pathways - The recovery in the real estate sector, potentially aided by continued interest rate cuts, is expected to enhance retail sales and initiate restocking among retailers [2]. - A low inventory-to-sales ratio suggests that there is room for replenishment, which could lead to an increase in furniture import values and a rebound in midstream manufacturing orders [2].