国泰海通｜固收：躁动行情换挡，聚焦业绩成色

Group 1 - The article highlights a strong start for the convertible bond market in early 2026, driven by positive macroeconomic signals and a return of funds to the market. Key indicators include a manufacturing PMI returning to expansion, improving CPI and PPI, and rising commodity prices, reflecting initial validation of economic recovery expectations [1][2] - The article notes that institutional funds, such as public offerings and insurance capital, are actively positioning themselves in the market during this period, contributing to increased market activity and a rise in margin trading balances [1][2] - Regulatory measures have been introduced to moderate market exuberance, including an increase in the margin requirement for new financing contracts from 80% to 100%, aimed at curbing excessive speculation. This may lead to short-term market volatility but is expected to support long-term stability [1][2] Group 2 - The convertible bond market is expected to maintain a stable performance amid ongoing policy benefits and moderate corporate earnings recovery, despite potential short-term fluctuations. The median price of convertible bonds has risen from 134 to 139 yuan, with the median conversion premium increasing from 33% to 34% [2] - Two core risks in the convertible bond market are identified: the potential for valuation corrections due to cooling equity markets and the risk of forced redemptions impacting valuations. The market may experience short-term fluctuations influenced by seasonal capital movements and regulatory adjustments [2] - As companies begin to disclose their annual performance forecasts, the focus shifts to verifying earnings. The article suggests prioritizing convertible bonds linked to stocks with high earnings growth certainty, particularly in sectors like AI computing, semiconductors, and energy storage [3]