戴康：2026的王者？黄金新高的逻辑与展望

Core Viewpoint - Gold has recently reached new highs, driven by its financial, hedging, and monetary attributes, with expectations for continued strength in 2026 [1]. Financial Attribute - The actual interest rate of 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds is negatively correlated with gold prices, and since the Fed's interest rate cut in September 2025, the market has been trading on expectations of continued liquidity easing [1]. - As of January 21, 2026, the market's expectation for a further 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed has diminished, indicating a potential slowdown in liquidity easing in the short term, but the long-term outlook remains in a liquidity easing channel [1]. Hedging Attribute - Recent geopolitical tensions, such as tariff disputes between the U.S. and Europe over Greenland, have heightened market risk aversion, leading to a narrative of "de-Americanization" and causing a sell-off in U.S. assets [1]. - Concerns about the U.S. economy, including weak employment and high inflation, are increasing uncertainty about short-term stagflation and long-term recession risks, thereby boosting demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1]. Monetary Attribute - A weak dollar and the trend of de-globalization are undermining the credibility of the dollar, while global central banks continue to increase their gold reserves, with Poland recently announcing a purchase of 150 tons of gold [1]. - The high global fiscal deficit context suggests that the depreciation of currencies relative to gold is unlikely to reverse in the short term, which will support gold's relative price [1]. Long-term Outlook - The new paradigm of gold as a super-sovereign credit asset, akin to a perpetual zero-coupon bond, is expected to form the basis of long-term investment logic, especially as concerns about U.S. debt continue to erode dollar credibility [3]. - The ongoing trend of de-dollarization, combined with geopolitical risks and central bank demand for gold, is likely to support gold prices in the medium to long term [3].