36氪·2026-01-21 14:33Core Viewpoint - The merger between Sinopec and China Aviation Oil aims to create a national energy powerhouse that can compete with international giants while focusing on carbon neutrality and supply chain security [4][6]. Group 1: Merger Announcement and Initial Actions - The merger announcement on January 8, 2026, revealed the formation of a new entity with total assets of nearly 2.8 trillion yuan and annual revenue exceeding 3 trillion yuan [4]. - Both companies have initiated the integration of their production and procurement systems, establishing a working group to optimize the supply chain from refineries to fuel pumps [5][9]. - The core principle of the merger is "professional integration" rather than mere scale expansion, indicating a shift in competition from channel-based to efficiency and cost-based [6][7]. Group 2: Industry Impact and Reactions - The merger has triggered a restructuring of the aviation fuel supply chain, affecting upstream suppliers, midstream refiners, and downstream airlines [5][16]. - Smaller refining companies and independent traders are feeling pressure as the procurement system is expected to favor Sinopec, potentially reducing orders from China Aviation Oil by at least 30% in the next couple of years [19]. - Some companies are exploring alliances with other large refiners to enhance their bargaining power and are reassessing direct supply options to airports [19][20]. Group 3: User Perspective and Concerns - Airlines, as the end users of aviation fuel, are closely monitoring the merger's impact on their procurement costs, which typically account for over 30% of their total operating expenses [28]. - While the merger could enhance supply stability and reduce costs, there are concerns about diminished bargaining power as China Aviation Oil and Sinopec become a single entity [28][29]. - Airlines are exploring alternative supply channels and considering sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) as a key variable in future negotiations [32][33]. Group 4: Regulatory and Future Considerations - The merger raises questions about market competition and potential monopolistic behavior, prompting expectations of regulatory scrutiny from the State Administration for Market Regulation [35][36]. - The integration is also seen as a step towards accelerating the decarbonization of the aviation industry, with both companies having complementary strengths in SAF technology and distribution networks [36][37]. - Successful implementation of the merger will depend on optimizing the value chain and enhancing global competitiveness while navigating regulatory challenges [38].