财政能为“开门红”增色几许？【华福宏观·陈兴团队】

Key Points - The fiscal policy in 2025 remains strong, but the effectiveness of fiscal expansion in driving economic growth has decreased, reflecting a lower "cost-effectiveness" of fiscal measures due to structural transformation, slow spending of special government bonds, and low price levels impacting fiscal efficiency [2][6][13] Group 1: Fiscal Strength and Effectiveness - The fiscal policy maintains a strong expansionary stance, with total fiscal expenditure as a percentage of GDP showing a recovery in 2025 after a decline from Q3 2022 to the end of 2024 [5][6] - The fiscal multiplier effect has weakened, with the fiscal effect coefficient dropping below 1, indicating that fiscal spending is less effective in driving GDP growth compared to 2024 [6][10] - Structural transformation has led to a shift in fiscal spending towards areas with higher capital retention and longer effectiveness cycles, reducing the expected impact on traditional infrastructure [7][10] Group 2: Changes in Policy Focus - The 2026 fiscal policy aims to maintain a stable budget deficit rate while expanding fiscal spending, with a focus on domestic demand, technological innovation, and strengthening social welfare [15][18] - The emphasis on domestic demand has shifted to a strategic priority of "domestic demand-led" growth, highlighting the importance of increasing residents' income [18][20] - The standardization of tools and policies is aimed at enhancing efficiency, with a focus on preventing local subsidy competition and creating a unified national market [20][21] Group 3: Government Debt and Financing - The issuance of government bonds in Q1 2026 is expected to remain stable compared to the previous year, with a slight increase in net financing scale [24][26] - Local government debt issuance is primarily focused on special refinancing bonds, with a more uniform pace of debt issuance anticipated in 2026 compared to 2025 [26] - The overall growth rate of government debt in Q1 2026 is expected to be lower than in the same period in 2025, indicating a more moderate approach to fiscal expansion [26]